What’s the Weather? A Glance at Historical Weather Forecasting

Barometer, 19th-century

Murney Tower Museum General Collection

© Murney Tower Museum

In an extract from an 1863 text titled The Weather Book: A Manual of Practical Meteorology, Robert Fitzroy (1863, 25) wrote that it should always be remembered that “the state of the air foretells coming weather, rather than indicates weather that is present (an invaluable fact too often overlooked)”. This truth underlies all scientific methods of weather forecasting, from the nineteenth century to today. It is easy, however, to overlook the technology and innovation that has developed over the years – the behind-the-scenes science that now allows us to wake up in the morning, open the Weather app on our phone, and see what the day’s weather will bring.

The attempt to forecast the weather is, of course, not a modern phenomenon. For millennia, humans have tried a variety of methods to predict the torrent of rain, the arrival of the sun, the outbreak of storms. Cloud patterns, lunar phases, and astrology have all been used as means by which coming weather would be foretold. Indeed, the modern age of weather forecasting did not begin until the invention of the electric telegraph in 1835. In her book Predicting the Weather: Victorians and the Science of Meteorology, Katharine Anderson (2005, 3) explains that the development of weather prediction in the nineteenth century “hinged on a dramatic new form of communication, the telegraph, which for the first time allowed weather data to travel faster than the winds themselves.” The daily exchange of data allowed by the telegraph meant that atmospheric changes across a wide area could be tracked with “regularity and immediacy” (Anderson 2005, 3).

The transformation of telecommunication technology was accompanied by a proliferation of the invention and production of devices that could be used to measure current atmospheric conditions. The most significant invention was that of the barometer, which measures the air pressure of a given environment, thereby forecasting short-term changes in the weather. The first barometer (derived from the Ancient Greek words for “weight” and “measure”) actually dates back to the seventeenth century; Italian physicist Evangelista Torricelli is credited with its invention in 1644 (Anderson, 2005).

Over the nineteenth century, a variety of types of barometers were invented – including the type pictured above, one of the many curious and fascinating artifacts in Murney Tower Museum’s General Collection. This is an aneroid barometer, which uses a small metal box held together by a spring. Small changes in air pressure cause the box to expand or contract, causing the needle on the face of the barometer to shift to either Stormy, Rain, Change, Fair, or Very Dry. Measuring 13 centimetres by 6 centimetres in diameter, with a small hook at the top which allowed it to be hung, this small, brass barometer was common in nineteenth- and twentieth-century households.

If you look close enough, you can see the company trademark on the face of the device. It was manufactured by Short & Mason, a company founded in the mid-to-late 1800s in London. Short & Mason became leaders in the design of barometers, as well as other precision instruments. In a 1903 booklet written by one of the company’s founders, T.W. Short (1903, 1) describes the aneroid barometer as “one of the most ingenious instruments ever constructed for measuring the action of a ‘Natural Law.’” Barometers had become, according to Short, “almost an indispensable companion” to travellers and tourists (7).

Today, meteorologists use several devices, from barometers to satellites, to gather information on current atmospheric conditions. By means of numerical equations, computers use this information to create forecast models of the atmosphere (Warrilow 2012). The average person’s engagement with weather forecasting in the twenty-first century involves checking Weather apps, opening The Weather Network, or watching the news. This fascinating artifact, an aneroid barometer used by a Kingston resident in days past, tells a story of both past and present and reminds us of the background to a relatively recent innovation which now has become standard, habitual, and every day.

References

Anderson, K. (2005). Predicting the weather: Victorians and the science of meteorology. University of Chicago Press.

Fitzroy, R. (1863). The weather book: a manual of practical meteorology. Longman, Green, Longman, Roberts, & Green.

Short, T.W. (1903). Aneroid barometers: a description of the construction and various uses explained. Short & Mason, Ltd.

Warrilow, C. (2012, February 15). Students ask: how do meteorologists predict the weather? GPB Blogs. https://www.gpb.org/blogs/talking-storm/2012/02/15/students-ask-how-do- meteorologists-predict-the-weather